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Dryad Explores Luck





Here's my humble attempt to quantify luck:


Trying to quantify luck by repeatedly using a spell and comparing success rate over time.
Testing with magic missile, a spell I have studied to 30% (cast generic steady at 111%).
These numbers are rough, since I'm only casting 50-100 times per assessment -- my poor 
hands (and patience) can't handle much more than that.

I test by dropping 1 gold to the ground and blasting it until it dests, about 30 blasts.
Dest, drop, repeat.


By the way, the "help luck" file says the following.  I take this as a personal challenge.


   There is a factor called 'luck' in BatMUD.

   There is no way of finding out how this mysterious attribute actually 
   affects your character. Luck is not a normal variable, it is not displayed
   in your score nor may any items or monsters narrate it or its value to you.

   Many stories are being told of what affects your luck, many may be true,
   many are surely faerie tales. It is said that only bards of all mortals
   can temporarily affect your luck.




         Time            Success
Date     EST   Casts     Rate       Notes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2/4/06   6PM    100      53.0       Lots of idle, 160k sac today.  Impression of low luck from
                                    some disappointing chest-making.  Poor ring reproducibility.

2/5/06  11AM    100      53.0       Idled for 8 hrs overnight.  No sacs.
                                    Luck seems unaffected.

2/5/06  11AM    100      62.0       After sacrifice of 5 kgs diamond worth 25k.
                                    Message: You feel your wounds healing more quickly.
                                    Luck seems greatly improved.  (about 17% casting improvement)

2/5/06  12AM    100      61.0       After 45 min of playing with no idle-time.
                                    Luck seems unaffected.

2/5/06   5PM    100      66.0       After 5 hrs ld, with no idle-time since the 25k donation.
                                    So ld seems to perhaps increase luck?

2/5/06   7PM     50      66.0       After 1 to 1.5 hours of active playtime, no idling.

2/6/06  12PM    100      63.0       Ld overnight, then 1-2 hrs of playtime, minor idling.
                                    Couple of times of 5-10 minutes idle.
 
2/6/06  12PM     50      66.0       25k sac of 5 kg divine diamond, "you feel healthier" (+30 hp)
                                    Perhaps a slight boost to luck. 

2/6/06  12PM     50      64.0       Following 4 hours of mostly-active playtime.  Few
                                    idletimes of 5-15 minutes.  More my normal pattern of play
                                    but going ld when I expect an extended idle.
                                    No significant change in luck.

2/6/06  4PM      50      58.0       Sac of an alch ring worth 460k, "you feel somehow different."
                                    Looks like my big sac decreased my luck.

2/6/06  10PM     50      60.0       Following a couple more hours of mostly-active playtime.  
                                    Luck is creeping back up after that big sac.

2/7/06   6PM     50      56.0       Following 2 hours of active playtime, no idling.  (ring-making).  
                                    Luck seems to have dropped.  

2/7/06   6PM     50      60.0       25k sac of 5 kg divine diamond, "You feel completely rejuvenated."
                                    Slight luck boost, perhaps.

2/7/06   6PM     50      74.0       89k sac of an alch ring, "You grow a bit."
                                    (hp increased from 601-608)
                                    Nice boost to luck, seems very clear.  A 23% casting improvement
                                    from an 89k sac. 

2/7/06   9PM     70      58.5       Another 1-2 hrs of play, with some minor (<10min) idling.
                                    Luck dropped -- time-decay after sac?  Or from minor idling?

2/7/06   9PM     50      72.0       Testing a 3rd sac in a day. 25k worth of divine diamond.
                                    You feel fiiine. (+26 hps)
                                    Looks like a big luck boost from a 3rd-in-a-day sac.




                         Sac #        Initial      Final          % 
Date       Sacworth      in day       success%     success%     change
-----------------------------------------------------------------------





These are some of the rumors I'm testing:

Things rumored to boost luck:

  *  Shrine sacrifices, up to 2/day.
  *  Large sac == large boost.
  *  A certain bard song.
  *  Wizard whim luck-boost, often with holidays.
  *  Admiring Trilloch painting.
  *  Idling, when your luck is negative.
  *  Wearing a bloody rabbits foot (shortname 'lucky foot') amulet.


Things rumored to decrease luck:

  *  Idling, when your luck is positive.
  *  Shrine sacrifices, over 2/day.
  *  A certain bard song.
  *  Friday the 13th == min luck
  *  Wizard whim luck-suck.
 

Some other questions I want to address:

  *  I go afk with a legal anti-idle trig.  Does this form of idle affect luck?
  *  What effect does sacrificing have, and how long does it last?
  *  What's the effect of multiple sacs/boot?
  *  Does having leading-guild status boost luck?










"Making the Outerworld Smaller TM"

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